Sources of the indicators are as follows:
The base data used was from the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (Conflict Barometer 2020, Heidelberg, HIIK, 2021), Minority Rights Group International, and the Center for Systemic Peace (‘Major Episodes of Political Violence 1946-2019’ (Center for Systemic Peace, 2020). Self-determination/autonomy conflicts in 2020 were ranked on a scale of 0-5 as follows: 5 = ongoing armed conflict; 4 = contained armed conflict; 3 = settled armed conflict; 2 = militant politics; 1 = conventional politics. Major armed conflicts were classified as 2 = ongoing in late 2020; 1 = emerging from conflict since 2016 or ongoing conflict with deaths under 1,000.
Prior genocide or politicide
Harff, US Political Instability Task Force (formerly State Failure Task Force). 1 = one or more episodes since 1945, updated using MRG data.
Indicators of Flight and Group Division
Data for the flight of refugees and IDPs comes from UN High Commissioner for Refugees, total population of concern by country of origin, Mid-Year Trends 2021, as a proportion of total country population (population figures from UN DESA, 2019 revision). Group division indicators are from the Fragile States Index, Fund for Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2021.
Annual Governance Indicators, World Bank, 2020.
OECD country risk classification
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, ‘Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits’, June 2021.
Data for Kosovo include some indicators relating to Serbia.
Data for the State of Palestine include some indicators relating to both Israel/Palestine; data relating to Palestinian refugees include those under the UNHCR mandate only.
Indicators were rebased as necessary to give an approximate equal weighting to the five categories above, with the exception of the prior geno-/politicide indicator. As a dichotomous variable this received a lesser weighting to avoid too great a distortion to the final ranking. Resulting values were then summed.
The full formula is:
(A/2) + (Bx1.25) + (Cx2) + (Dx10) + (E+F)/6 + (G+H+I)/-1 + (Jx0.625)