Communities at risk
Political targets, Shi'a/Alawites, Christians, Kurds, Palestinians
As the conflict enters its 10th year, Syria remains at the top of the Peoples under Threat index. While a precise death toll is difficult to calculate, more than 500,000 Syrians are estimated to have been killed during the conflict and upwards of 12 million displaced, almost half of whom are now living outside the… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
|2020 Data||Peoples under Threat value|
|Major armed conflict||2|
|Prior genocide / politicide||1|
|Flight of refugees and IDPs||0.7591|
|Legacy of vengeance - group grievance||10.0|
|Rise of factionalized elites||9.9|
|Voice and Accountability||-1.958|
|Rule of Law||-2.048|
|OECD country risk classification||7|
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
As the conflict enters its 10th year, Syria remains at the top of the Peoples under Threat index. While a precise death toll is difficult to calculate, more than 500,000 Syrians are estimated to have been killed during the conflict and upwards of 12 million displaced, almost half of whom are now living outside the country. While all sides have perpetrated atrocities, the Syrian government and its allied Russian forces remain responsible for the vast majority of civilian casualties. The regime of President Bashar al-Assad has increasingly re-established power, a trend evident since Russia’s military intervention in 2015. While Kurdish-led forces pushed Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) fighters from the group’s last outpost in March 2019, the Syrian military – boosted by Russia, Iran and various Shi’a militias – continues its onslaught on areas still held by Islamists, other rebels and Turkish-backed forces in and near Idlib province. Government and Russian forces have for years systematically targeted hospitals and medical facilities, and an offensive beginning in December 2019 resulted in the worst displacement crisis to date. Many of the 1 million uprooted people in northwest Syria now crowd camps in conditions that leaves them highly vulnerable to a COVID-19 outbreak.