Communities at risk
Political targets, Shi'a/Alawites, Christians, Kurds, Palestinians
Summary
More than a decade after popular uprisings gave way to civil war, Syria again tops the Peoples under Threat index in 2021 – the seventh time in a row. Farcical presidential elections in May 2021 occurred in the two-thirds of the country under government control and against the backdrop of tens of thousands of perceived… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2021 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 5 |
| Major armed conflict | 2 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | 1 |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.8056 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 9.7 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 9.9 |
| Voice and Accountability | -1.934 |
| Political Stability | -2.731 |
| Rule of Law | -2.072 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 29.435 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
More than a decade after popular uprisings gave way to civil war, Syria again tops the Peoples under Threat index in 2021 – the seventh time in a row. Farcical presidential elections in May 2021 occurred in the two-thirds of the country under government control and against the backdrop of tens of thousands of perceived political opponents having been arrested, tortured or disappeared since the conflict began in 2011. More than half the pre-war population has been displaced, either as internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Syria or as refugees outside the country, and an estimated 500,000 people have been killed in the conflict – the large majority by the government, assisted by Iran, various militias and crucial Russian military assistance. Large-scale fighting has gradually declined, with Islamist rebels formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda confined to Idlib province, ISIS resorting mainly to hit-and-run attacks, Turkish and Turkey-backed Syrian opposition forces positioned across northern Syria, and Kurdish-led fighters controlling the northeast. In this patchwork of hostilities, civilians remain extremely vulnerable to ongoing armed confrontations.