Communities at risk
Fur, Zaghawa, Massalit and others in Darfur, Ngok Dinka, Nuba, Beja
Summary
Since the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sudan’s transition to democratic governance has hung in the balance. In 2021, more than two years later, to protect its political and economic interests established over several decades, the military launched a coup in October 2021. While the civilian prime minister was nominally reinstated thereafter, this… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2021 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 4 |
| Major armed conflict | 2 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | 1 |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.0801 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 9.5 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 9.1 |
| Voice and Accountability | -1.433 |
| Political Stability | -1.763 |
| Rule of Law | -1.067 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 19.039 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
Since the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sudan’s transition to democratic governance has hung in the balance. In 2021, more than two years later, to protect its political and economic interests established over several decades, the military launched a coup in October 2021. While the civilian prime minister was nominally reinstated thereafter, this intervention ultimately appears to reflect a reassertion of military control over the country’s politics. Sudanese involved in mass demonstrations continue to risk brutalization and death at the hands of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, following an established pattern. While several armed groups in Darfur signed a peace agreement with the government, others have refused and violence has continued, with close to five times more people displaced in the first four months of 2021 alone than during the entirety of 2020. A rollback of joint UN–AU peacekeepers has removed a deterrent to abuses of civilians, including in West Darfur, where ethnic conflict between Massalit and Arab communities has ignited.