Communities at risk
Bantu, Benadiri, 'caste' groups (Gabooye etc.), Hawiye, Darod, clan members at risk in fighting
Summary
Patterns of instability and conflict long affecting Somalia continue in 2021, with the war against al-Shabaab militants now spanning over 15 years. Government forces backed by United States (US) drone strikes and special forces, African Union (AU) personnel and other regional allies have been largely unsuccessful in preventing deadly al-Shabaab attacks on civilians, security forces… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2021 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 4 |
| Major armed conflict | 2 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | 1 |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.2469 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 8.3 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 10.0 |
| Voice and Accountability | -1.797 |
| Political Stability | -2.519 |
| Rule of Law | -2.300 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 23.010 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
Patterns of instability and conflict long affecting Somalia continue in 2021, with the war against al-Shabaab militants now spanning over 15 years. Government forces backed by United States (US) drone strikes and special forces, African Union (AU) personnel and other regional allies have been largely unsuccessful in preventing deadly al-Shabaab attacks on civilians, security forces and government officials in Mogadishu and across south-central Somalia, where the group assumes many state functions. While international fatigue and frustration mount, some 3 million civilians are internally displaced as a result of the conflict and interlocking crises of drought, food insecurity and inadequate healthcare. Political tensions surrounding postponed elections further complicate the situation, with a descent into more intractable violence only narrowly averted when armed forces supporting President Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’ exchanged gunfire with opposition loyalists in April 2021. This and other disputes are perpetuated by a political system that awards significant power to rivalrous clan-based elites.