Communities at risk
Bantu, Benadiri, 'caste' groups (Gabooye etc.), Hawiye, Darod, clan members at risk in fighting
Summary
While elections are scheduled for late 2020 and early 2021, the first expression of universal suffrage in more than 50 years, Somalia remains unstable. With a frail healthcare infrastructure and more than 2.6 million people internally displaced, a COVID-19 crisis risks fueling political tensions and even violence between supporters and opponents of President Mohamed Abdullahi… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2020 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 4 |
| Major armed conflict | 2 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | 1 |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.2318 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 8.6 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 10.0 |
| Voice and Accountability | -1.883 |
| Political Stability | -2.220 |
| Rule of Law | -2.333 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 22.73 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
While elections are scheduled for late 2020 and
early 2021, the first expression of universal suffrage in
more than 50 years, Somalia remains unstable. With a
frail healthcare infrastructure and more than 2.6 million people internally displaced, a COVID-19
crisis risks fueling political tensions and even violence between supporters and opponents of President Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’. Al-Shabaab, claiming its enemies are ‘crusader forces’ weaponizing COVID19, has continued deadly gunfire, improvised explosive device (IED) and shelling attacks on the Somali National Army and its allies, as well as civilians, government officials and politicians. Most attacks occur in Mogadishu, Middle and Lower Shabelle, as well as Jubaland and Puntland, where alShabaab have also clashed with ISIS-affiliated fighters. African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and other foreign forces continue to support the government, but AMISOM is scheduled to withdraw from Somalia by 2021, raising concerns about the government’s preparedness. Civilians continue to be affected by deadly inter-clan clashes and US airstrikes