Summary
Mozambique’s ascent up the Peoples under Threat table, observable over the past five years, appears far from over. In gas-rich, northern Cabo Delgado province, Islamist militants now regularly attack urban centres. Rooted in local grievances around state incapacity, corruption and economic mismanagement, ISIS-affiliated Ahlu Sunna Wal Jammaa has attacked military and police personnel, infrastructure and… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2020 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 4 |
| Major armed conflict | 1 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | No data |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.0003 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 5.3 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 7.1 |
| Voice and Accountability | -0.467 |
| Political Stability | -0.784 |
| Rule of Law | -1.044 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 11.99 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
Mozambique’s ascent up the Peoples under Threat table, observable over the past five years, appears far from over. In gas-rich, northern Cabo Delgado province, Islamist militants now regularly attack urban centres. Rooted in local grievances around state incapacity, corruption and economic mismanagement, ISIS-affiliated Ahlu Sunna Wal Jammaa has attacked military and police personnel, infrastructure and civilians. In response to the insurgency, repressive violence by security forces and Russian mercenaries have further alienated the local population. At the centre of the country’s COVID-19 crisis, Cabo Delgado is also riven by malaria and cholera outbreaks and hundreds of thousands of people uprooted by conflict. While a peace process between the ruling FRELIMO and RENAMO opposition resulted in an August 2019 treaty, an emerging militant faction within RENAMO rejected the deal. Inter-party tensions – and political instability more generally – have flared further due to deadly clashes between rival supporters leading up to general elections October 2019.