Summary
Mozambique continues to rise in the Peoples under Threat table as the Islamist insurgency in northern Cabo Delgado province has grown significantly more deadly through 2020–21 and drawn international military training and assistance from several Western and African countries. Yet overstating the connections of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamma’a with ISIS – as has been done… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2021 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 4 |
| Major armed conflict | 2 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | No data |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.0262 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 5.8 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 6.6 |
| Voice and Accountability | -0.601 |
| Political Stability | -1.161 |
| Rule of Law | -1.022 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 13.988 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
Mozambique continues to rise in the Peoples under Threat table as the Islamist insurgency in northern Cabo Delgado province has grown significantly more deadly through 2020–21 and drawn international military training and assistance from several Western and African countries. Yet overstating the connections of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamma’a with ISIS – as has been done with a US terrorist list designation – portends further militarization and worsening cycles of resentment and violence. Securitization alone will not address the essentially local grievances fueling the conflict, rooted in state incapacity, corruption and extreme economic deprivation in an area where Africa’s three largest natural gas deposits enrich only Mozambican elites and multinational corporations. Militants and state security personnel continue to perpetrate an array of rights abuses against civilians, and while more than 800,000 people remain displaced in the north, in central Mozambique a splinter group of the opposition RENAMO has rejected a peace deal with the government while periodically attacking civilians in recent years.