Mozambique

Peoples Under Threat Ranking:
#22
13

Summary

Mozambique continues to rise in the Peoples under Threat table as the Islamist insurgency in northern Cabo Delgado province has grown significantly more deadly through 2020–21 and drawn international military training and assistance from several Western and African countries. Yet overstating the connections of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamma’a with ISIS – as has been done… Read more »

Peoples Under Threat Data

2021 Data Peoples under Threat value
Self-determination conflicts4
Major armed conflict2
Prior genocide / politicideNo data
Flight of refugees and IDPs0.0262
Legacy of vengeance - group grievance5.8
Rise of factionalized elites6.6
Voice and Accountability-0.601
Political Stability-1.161
Rule of Law-1.022
OECD country risk classification7
TOTAL13.988

The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page. 

Background

Mozambique continues to rise in the Peoples under Threat table as the Islamist insurgency in northern Cabo Delgado province has grown significantly more deadly through 2020–21 and drawn international military training and assistance from several Western and African countries. Yet overstating the connections of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamma’a with ISIS – as has been done with a US terrorist list designation – portends further militarization and worsening cycles of resentment and violence. Securitization alone will not address the essentially local grievances fueling the conflict, rooted in state incapacity, corruption and extreme economic deprivation in an area where Africa’s three largest natural gas deposits enrich only Mozambican elites and multinational corporations. Militants and state security personnel continue to perpetrate an array of rights abuses against civilians, and while more than 800,000 people remain displaced in the north, in central Mozambique a splinter group of the opposition RENAMO has rejected a peace deal with the government while periodically attacking civilians in recent years.