Communities at risk
Shi'a, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkmen, Christians, Mandaeans, Yezidis, Shabak, Faili Kurds, Bahá'ís, Palestinians
Summary
Iraq has been unable to outgrow a legacy of authoritarian rule and the sectarian tensions it nurtured for decades prior to their intensification following the US-led invasion of 2003. Calling for fundamental reforms to the post-2003 political system, the emergence of mass anti-government protests in 2019 led to early elections in October 2021. Yet it… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2021 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 5 |
| Major armed conflict | 2 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | 1 |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.0475 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 8.2 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 9.6 |
| Voice and Accountability | -1.010 |
| Political Stability | -2.528 |
| Rule of Law | -1.754 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 20.109 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
Iraq has been unable to outgrow a legacy of authoritarian rule and the sectarian tensions it nurtured for decades prior to their intensification following the US-led invasion of 2003. Calling for fundamental reforms to the post-2003 political system, the emergence of mass anti-government protests in 2019 led to early elections in October 2021. Yet it remains doubtful whether a nationally unifying sense of legitimate political authority can be ushered in. Assassinations, threats and bribery characterized the lead-up to the elections. Various Shi’a political groups, many with ties to Iran, have retained their influence over Iraqi politics. In diverse regions such as Ninewa – exceptionally hard-hit by ISIS and the joint campaign by the Iraqi military, a US-led coalition and Kurdish forces to dislodge the group – feelings of neglect and mistrust toward the state and other communities persist. Having regrouped in recent years and seeking to recruit disillusioned Sunni Arabs, ISIS has since 2020 escalated attacks, frequently on civilians and particularly in the provinces of Kirkuk, Salahaddin and Diyala.