Communities at risk
Hazara, Pashtun, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmen, Baluchis
Summary
Afghanistan ranked 4th in 2019’s Peoples under Threat index and rose 2 places from 2018’s ranking. The number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan in 2019 only slightly improved on the tragic record of the previous year, with July-September being the deadliest three months since the UN began counting in 2009. The 3,400 civilian deaths and nearly… Read more »
Peoples Under Threat Data
| 2020 Data | Peoples under Threat value |
|---|---|
| Self-determination conflicts | 4 |
| Major armed conflict | 2 |
| Prior genocide / politicide | 1 |
| Flight of refugees and IDPs | 0.1492 |
| Legacy of vengeance - group grievance | 7.5 |
| Rise of factionalized elites | 8.9 |
| Voice and Accountability | -0.995 |
| Political Stability | -2.747 |
| Rule of Law | -1.668 |
| OECD country risk classification | 7 |
| TOTAL | 20.51 |
The overall measure for each country is based on a basket of 10 indicators. The number in each row is drawn from the source for that particular indicator. The sources of data and calculations used are detailed on the Notes to Table page.
Background
Afghanistan ranked 4th in 2019’s Peoples under Threat index and rose 2 places from 2018’s ranking.
The number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan in 2019 only slightly improved on the tragic record of the previous year, with July-September being the deadliest three months since the UN began counting in 2009. The 3,400 civilian deaths and nearly 7,000 injuries in 2019 resulted mostly from fighting between the Taliban and the Afghan government, supported by NATO and additional US forces. The Taliban has leveraged unprecedented territorial gains in peace negotiations with the US government, with whom it reached an agreement in February 2020. Yet in advance of the planned next step, intra-Afghan negotiations, Taliban offensives have escalated further. The economic downturn caused by COVID-19 has raised worries of food insecurity and resulting unrest. The spread of COVID-19 has also animated conspiracies about the mainly Shi’a Hazara community, which has long faced deadly extremist violence, including an ISIS-claimed suicide attack on
a wedding in August that killed 63 people and an assault by the same group in March 2020 on a
ceremony commemorating a prominent Hazara leader. At least 32 people were killed in the latter
attack, many of whom were also Hazaras.